Ukraine and Russian Dynamics: Unpredictable Implications for Africa?

Geopolitics have always been intertwined with the domestic and foreign policies of the superpowers of the world. A game of soft power many would argue. On the other hand, we may consider it a real attempt at succeeding in the game of influence where the developing world inevitably gets entangled. 

A superpower’s sphere of influence are fundamentally its ideological compatradres; not exclusively economic or industrial partners. This is a distinction that needs to be highlighted to better understand the dynamic of Russia and Ukraine. The shared historical context of Russia and Ukraine relates to the founding of both countries together with Belarus and their claimed place of origin being in Ukraine; coupled with skirmishes to the more recent Soviet Union, Russia finds it hard to reconcile the loss of its former ideological compadre, Ukraine.

A defeated superpower that only but tries to reconcile its previous identity forever lost in the shadows; a cowering vicious viper that doesn’t deserve a place at the table they so desperately desire a place in. 

Perhaps you may argue Russia being denied entry into NATO was not a wise decision and inevitably led to Putin’s furiosity. Perhaps it’s also important  to note that being a democracy is a prerequisite for NATO membership. A war mongering spy certainly did not have this prereq (and maybe even more) met so it should come as no surprise that his rejection was the best decision at the time and would still be the preferred decision now. 

A concern for African democracies

Retaining democracy as  the status quo when it comes to models that prop up governments around the world is by far the most important aspect of the founding of the United States. Democracy as a burgeoning contender for the governments of the world has ensured the rise of capitalism and its eventual success while propping up the NATO alliance post World War 2. This in regard has propelled the wider acceptance of democracies which in turn continues to put pressure on the communism-oriented systems (including democratic authoritarianism)  that continue to survive till this day.

Many would argue on the atrocities that have been committed in the defence of democracies or the blatant coups that have resulted in record deaths or the disintegration of an entire state; (it’d be amiss of you to denounce the good that has resulted in the current state of democracies around the world) But it’s notwithstanding that this has been a reality of civilizations across time and communism certainly does put things into perspective if we’re talking of recent times.

To put things into perspective, the ideological gamble is warranted and has been evident in the successes or the lack thereof of the corresponding systems of the west and east respectively.

The illusion of economic freedom that’s active via the authoritarian Chinese Communist Party’s media mouthpiece, so-called “Socialism with Chinese characteristics” propaganda, demands you trade your freedom for an ounce of sanity. 

As Thomas Jefferson once said;

He who gives his freedom for safety gets none of them.

Thomas Jefferson

Annexation of Crimea: Initial Success for Putin’s War Machine

In respect of the dissimilarity between China’s preying on Taiwan and Russia’s preying on Crimea and Ukraine, there’s the common need of an accompanying backstory. Essentially, in order to forcibly occupy a region under a cummunist takeover, there’s the required pretext of how it was a part of the claimant’s territory from historical time hence the need to exert such aggression. For what it’s worth, the annexation of Crimea emboldened Russia to press forward with their invading tactics. In its unassuming quest to forcibly extend its sphere of influence, Russia is bound to further push for false supremacy so as to counter NATO’s expansion. 

In its earnestness to attain false supremacy, however, there’s the inclination to become more aggressive if the conquest of Ukraine is to come to fruition. Ukraine being one of the major participants of the Warsaw Pact or Eastern Bloc. A realization of Ukraine’s capture of installation of a puppet administration will very likely launch the world into an unprecedented Cold War 2.0. Escalation would not be a concern but it will if Russia continues its conquest on restoring the old Soviet Union. 

An Eastern Alliance at NATO’s Door

The threat of NATO from the perspective of Putin looms strong. An undeniable threat indeed but the presence of nuclear weapons on both ends is rarely put into account in the public domain. There’s a good chance NATO would have come to the defense of Ukraine assuming we had no such thing. MAD (mutually assured destruction) has ensured that there can be no interference while Russia muddles in the affairs of an independent country. Perhaps if everyone had a nuclear weapon, we can be assured world peace?

This is not the common sentiment, of course (thankfully). It goes to show that there’s no curtailing the insanity of Russia’s war on Ukraine by direct combat but by economic sanctions (hit them where it hurts multiple folds). The trick is that sanctions do not only affect Putin’s war machine and his close friends (oligarchs), it effectively trickles down to the rest of the Russian society’s day to day. The ripple effect is essentially what we hoped for – a viable alternative to the standard of getting the NATO boots on Ukrainian soil. 

Outcome of the War

  As western alliances continue to grow, there’s a need for NATO to win this war to further disincentive Putin and his quest. An alternative outcome is that Putin continues his assault on Ukraine to the detriment of the democratically installed government which will effectively result in a win for the communist mouthpieces around the world. Such an event will have lasting repercussions that we cannot begin to fathom. 

Some of the immediate/irreparable consequences may be China’s emboldenment to further its cause on Taiwan or Russia’s plan to annex another territory that previously called the Soviet Union its sovereign master.

Furthermore, the implications will result in opportunistically motivated relationships with African countries for the fight over the domination of international organizations that include the UN. Being able to exert influence in key international organizations, will inevitably propel communist ideology into the mainstream under the guise of a system that’s economically viable when in fact, corruption is inherently how they’re sustained.  

Curtailing the rise of Communism

Whatever the case may be, the primary objective for any realistic chance in idea domination in the game of soft power is entangled in the sophistication of techniques that enhance the relationship between western democracies and burgeoning democracies in the rest of the world.

Africa as a center point for young democracies is especially vulnerable to the whims of competing systems from the east. China’s belt and road initiative under the guise of a debt-trap diplomacy is evidently working in the favor of China to the detriment of the countries on the receiving end. There’s always a significant number of compromises involved that often makes China appear as a winning champion at home and abroad to the disadvantage of the country on the receiving end. 

In a case where aspiring democracies feel their alliance or cooperation can be bought with infrastructure projects, you can reconcile that there’s an apt resonance to the Thomas Jefferson quote from above. In such a case, the west will need to drastically pivot in their tactics in upholding democracies. As it appears to be a battle of ideologies, education will become imperative in ensuring rising democracies can be resilient against incredibly effective propaganda from the east.